Vancouver Housing Starts Just Cratered 42% Year-Over-Year

CMHC's July 2026 housing starts data landed Monday. Nationally, starts fell 5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 229,074 units. But Vancouver was hit hardest of Canada's three major markets, with a 42% year-over-year decrease driven by declines in both multi-unit and single-detached starts. For context: Toronto starts fell 10% year-over-year. Montreal actually rose 3%. Vancouver is the outlier. CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Hughes: "This environment will continue to hold back new housing construction in Canada over the short-to-medium term."For BC buyers and sellers, this rewrites the future-supply calculation. Sellers listing this fall now have meaningfully less competition coming from new construction over the next 12 to 18 months. Buyers waiting for "supply is coming" to bring prices down should recalibrate; in Vancouver, supply is not coming. Presale buyers may see more aggressive developer incentives as builders pull back on new launches and try to move existing inventory. And for anyone who thought Vancouver's housing shortage was structurally solved by the last two years of policy activity: the shovels-in-the-ground data disagrees.

Canadian Inflation Jumped Back to 3% in July — And Housing Is the Only Thing Holding It Down

Statistics Canada released July CPI on August 17. Headline inflation rose to 3.0% year-over-year, up from 2.8% in June and above the Bank of Canada's 2% target for the fifth straight month. Gasoline drove almost the entire increase (+25.7% year-over-year, up from +20.5% in June) as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher again. But the counter-story is in shelter: shelter inflation fell to 1.5% year-over-year, down from 1.7%, and core inflation measures (CPI-trim at 1.9%, CPI-median at 2.0%) actually eased. Housing costs are now the primary deflationary force keeping headline CPI from running higher.For BC buyers and sellers, the implications are direct. First, the Bank of Canada is almost certainly on hold for the rest of 2026. TD Economics said it explicitly: expect the BoC to hold through year-end. Buyers waiting for a September or October rate cut should stop waiting. Second, fixed mortgage rates could tick upward if oil-driven inflation persists, because fixed rates track bond yields, and bond yields track inflation expectations. The 3.94% fixed rate we celebrated in Issue #16 may not hold if oil keeps climbing. Third, the "shelter is the only deflationary force" story ties everything ZONED has been reporting together: 25 straight months of falling BC rents, softer condo prices, no rate relief coming. The one thing that used to drive Canadian inflation is now the one thing pulling it down.

TD Economics: The Immigration Reset Is Actually Working — And You Can See It in BC's Housing Data

TD Chief Economist Beata Caranci and Economist Marc Ercolao published a fresh analysis on August 14 titled "Is the Dial-Back of Immigration Having the Intended Impact in Canada?" Their verdict: yes. Canada's population growth dropped from 3.2% in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025, the sharpest deceleration in modern Canadian history. TD reports that rent growth is slowing fastest in British Columbia and Ontario, precisely the two provinces where temporary foreign workers and international students made up the biggest slice of housing demand. Condo prices are softening in the same regions for the same reason. Slower population growth equals softer condo prices as demand from secondary rentals evaporates.For BC buyers and sellers, this is the structural explanation for nearly every housing story ZONED has covered this quarter. The Phantom Recovery in Vancouver, the 25-month BC rent decline, the softness in condo demand, the widening gap between Vancouver and the rest of the country: they all trace back to the same source. Buyers considering Vancouver condos should understand that the immigration-driven demand cushion is gone; the market will not be rescued by newcomers this time. Sellers of investor rental properties should factor in permanently softer rental demand. And for anyone tracking when this reverses: TD's answer is not soon. The 2026 to 2028 immigration levels plan keeps targets low. The demand pillar Vancouver leaned on for a decade is gone for the foreseeable future.